Today

A short briefing: what moved, what settles soon and what is new, with links to each page. moved = 5+ pt change (10+ for mentions) vs the latest real price 20-36 h ago; both prices 3-97c (settled/near-settled ignored); no real prior -> new (if first seen in 24 h or never quoted before); settles_soon = closes within 48 h. Prices 0-1.

Mentions

Mentions summary: last updated Nov 2, 1:06 PM CT. Next refresh 5:03 PM CT. Turns amber 90 minutes after a missed refresh.

What moved (14): What will JD Vance say during NYT DealBook Summit?: Inflation 57¢, +26 pts; What will Trump say in November?: Autism 64¢, -24 pts; What will Trump say in November?: Whistleblower 73¢, +21 pts; What will Trump say in November?: Refinance / Refinanced / Refinancing 38¢, +17 pts; and 10 more.
Settles soon: nothing right now.
What's new (25): What will Trump say during his remarks at the Lincoln Memorial?: Stock Market 84¢; What will Trump say during his remarks at the Lincoln Memorial?: Vandal / Vandalism / Vand 80¢; What will Trump say during his remarks at the Lincoln Memorial?: Rigged Election 32¢; What will Trump say during his remarks at the Lincoln Memorial?: Socialist / Socialism 40¢; and 21 more.

Sports

Sports summary: last updated Nov 2, 1:06 PM CT. Next refresh 5:03 PM CT. Turns amber 90 minutes after a missed refresh.

What moved: fills in from Nov 3 morning run (needs 24 hours of price history).
Settles soon (25): Lorient vs Stade Brest 29: Lorient 40¢, closes Nov 2, 2026; Lorient vs Stade Brest 29: Stade Brest 29 32¢, closes Nov 2, 2026; Lorient vs Stade Brest 29: Tie 30¢, closes Nov 2, 2026; Tennessee St. vs Murray St.: Murray St. 100¢, closes Nov 4, 2026; and 21 more.
What's new (25): Chicago vs Seattle: Seattle 62¢; Chicago vs Seattle: Chicago 38¢; Jacksonville vs Baltimore: Baltimore 20¢; Jacksonville vs Baltimore: Jacksonville 80¢; and 21 more.

AI (benchmarks, build-out, IPOs and mergers, exploration)

AI (benchmarks, build-out, IPOs and mergers, exploration) summary: last updated Nov 2, 1:06 PM CT. Next refresh 5:03 PM CT. Turns amber 90 minutes after a missed refresh.

What moved: fills in from Nov 3 morning run (needs 24 hours of price history).
Settles soon: nothing right now.
What's new (25): When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Nov 16, 2026 12¢; When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Dec 1, 2026 86¢; When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Jan 1, 2027 90¢; When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027 94¢; and 21 more.

Change log since last refresh

From the main dashboard build, last refreshed Mon Nov 2, 2026 at 2:27 PM CT. Next refresh: not scheduled.

Since last refresh

Moved 5+ pts (0)

nothing moved 5+ pts

Settled (0)

nothing settled

Newly flagged (0)

nothing newly flagged

Awaiting settlement (past start, not settled; price moves left out of “Moved”): Midterm rally in Rome, New York (26 phrases, 0 moved 5+) · Remarks at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool (29 phrases, 0 moved 5+)

Since the previous dashboard build (Mon Nov 2, 1:51 PM CT).

NFL alerts: QB, injury and weather vs the market

From the main dashboard build, last refreshed Mon Nov 2, 2026 at 2:27 PM CT. Next refresh: not scheduled.

Feedback prompts work as before: reply keep N or noise N.

QB, injury & weather vs the market ranked by impact · next 5 days

3 items for the next 5 days · 0 newer than Kalshi's last meaningful move · 0 high impact

Feedback IDs show as #N on each alert. Reply keep 3, noise 5 (or python3 feedback.py reply "keep 3, noise 5") to log kept vs noise.

Starting QB Questionable · impact 60JACBAL · Thu 7:15 PM CT · Kalshi ↗

Baltimore Ravens QB Tyler Huntley: Questionable (Toe Sprain)

priced after newsKalshi's last 3+ pt move: Sun 11:00 PM CT; BAL -5.0 pts since the news (BAL now 20¢).

News time: Sun Nov 1, 5:37 PM CT · ESPN injury report · source

Key starter Out · impact 45 #2625reply keep 2625 / noise 2625CHISEA · Mon 7:15 PM CT · Kalshi ↗

Seattle Seahawks LT Charles Cross: Out (Ankle Sprain)

older than 36 hKalshi's last 3+ pt move: none in the last 7 days; SEA +1.0 pts since the news (SEA now 62¢).

News time: Sat Oct 31, 10:18 PM CT · ESPN injury report · source

Key starter Out · impact 45 #2626reply keep 2626 / noise 2626CHISEA · Mon 7:15 PM CT · Kalshi ↗

Seattle Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed: Out (Knee)

older than 36 hKalshi's last 3+ pt move: none in the last 7 days; SEA +1.0 pts since the news (SEA now 62¢).

News time: Sat Oct 31, 3:53 PM CT · ESPN injury report · source

2 outdoor games checked (Open-Meteo + NWS); 0 with wind ≥ 15 mph, 0 with heavy precipitation. Impact ranks starting-QB news highest (Out 100, QB1 change 95, Doubtful 90, Questionable 60), then key starters Out (45) or Doubtful (35), wind ≥ 25 mph or heavy rain/snow (55), wind ≥ 15 mph (35); +25 when the news is under 36 h old, newer than Kalshi's last 3+ pt move (within 6 h, hourly candlesticks) and the price has moved under 3 pts since. Red border = impact ≥ 80: those go to the midday / 5 PM message once. News time = ESPN's injury-report update time, or when we first saw a depth-chart change or forecast. A quiet market can also mean the news was expected; check before acting. Research only, not trading advice. Built 2026-11-02T11:52:55-06:00.

Recently closed boards and data problems

From the main dashboard build, last refreshed Mon Nov 2, 2026 at 2:27 PM CT. Next refresh: not scheduled.

Recently closed · 12 boards with no open contract

Board	Section	Total vol	Last inventory leader
Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut? P	Leaderboards	$35,004	ladder (4 rungs): 1400+ 89¢; 1420+ 66¢; 1440+ 54¢; 1460+ 20¢
Meta's Watermelon Model: Text Arena Debut? P	Leaderboards	$2,552	ladder (5 rungs): 1480+ 84¢; 1490+ 66¢; 1500+ 62¢; 1505+ 30¢
Gemini 4.0 released by...? P	Releases	$523,113	ladder (10 rungs): November 30 98¢; October 23 83¢; October
What will the next Muse model family be named? P	Releases	$99,929	Muse Blaze 16¢; Muse Fire 8¢; Muse Watermelon 3¢
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...? P	Releases	$61,695	ladder (3 rungs): November 30 94¢; October 31 78¢; October 1
Gemini Argon released by...? P	Releases	$21,253	ladder (6 rungs): November 30 92¢; October 31 82¢; October 1
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...? P	Releases	$8,876	ladder (2 rungs): November 30 18¢; October 31 16¢
Next DeepSeek Flash released by...? P	Releases	$8,466	ladder (2 rungs): November 30 27¢; October 31 14¢
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? P	SI milestones	$109,212	ladder (4 rungs): 45%+ 93¢; 50%+ 89¢; 55%+ 26¢; 60%+ 4¢
Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? P	SI milestones	$38,991	ladder (4 rungs): 50%+ 88¢; 45%+ 87¢; 55%+ 72¢; 60%+ 6¢
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut? P	SI milestones	$29,971	ladder (4 rungs): 40%+ 94¢; 45%+ 88¢; 50%+ 62¢; 55%+ 24¢
Meta's Watermelon Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut? P	SI milestones	$4,138	ladder (4 rungs): 40%+ 90¢; 50%+ 68¢; 60%+ 10¢; 55%+ 6¢

Expired weekly / daily boards that are still in the inventory but have no open contract left (waiting on settlement or dropped by the venue). Hidden from the sections above. Kalshi volume in contracts, Polymarket in USD.

Recently closed · 1 board with no open contract

Board	Section	Total vol	Last inventory leader
Microsoft’s Market Cap end of 2026? P	Compute & chips	$0	<$2.50T 50¢; $2.50-$3.00T 50¢; $3.00-$3.50T 50¢

Data problems: none in the last ai_boards.py run.

Scorecard rollup: how our predictions did

Scorecard: last updated Nov 2, 12:51 PM CT. Next refresh 5:03 PM CT. Turns amber 90 minutes after a missed refresh.

Category	Settled	Brier ours	Brier market (last price before start)
Mentions	1488	0.159	0.159
NFL	119	0.225	0.227
AI boards	747	0.052	0.098
AI release boards	30	0.000	0.000
Mergers	0	n/a	n/a

Lower is better. When the market beats us, treat our gaps as prompts to dig, not edges.

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